NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Erin is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). While it is in the stage of an eyewall replacement cycle, Erin has lost a bit of its punch and has been downgraded to a category 3.

Erin, the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, is on track to rapidly intensify over the weekend and hit Category 4 strength next week in the open ocean. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Erin to cruise west for the next few days — staying comfortably north of inhabited islands — before hooking north early next week and avoiding direct landfall in the Bahamas or Florida.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance in the Gulf near Mexico while watching the path of Tropical Storm Erin.

Hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30. Here’s what you should know before Erin or any future storm approaches land.

5 p.m. Update: Erin is now organizing and strengthening over the Central Atlantic. Erin is expected to become at least a Catgory 3 hurricane but missing Puerto Rico to the north and staying well east of Florida. It is expected to reach Jacksonville’s latitude about early Wednesday, resulting in some rough seas and surf at area beaches next week.