Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests include Dave Weigel, Larry Sabato, Sean Trende, Clare Malone, Greg Bluestein, Lenny Bronner, ...

Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are off by 3-4 points in the same direction in every state? I’m choosing 3-4 ...

This is the weekly Still Counting post. It’s coming to you a day late because yesterday was one of those days. Not in a bad way, but in the way the last few days before the election typically are.

If you’re fully exploring the probabilistic landscape in an uncertain electoral environment, you’re inevitably going to end up with some posts that “didn’t age well.” For example, if Democrats have a ...