While low-engagement voters favored Trump over Kamala Harris by 13 points in 2024, low-engagement likely voters now favor ...

A mailbag episode about Democrats’ huge early voting numbers, the almost-final polls in key Senate races, and everything else ...

Why undecided voters probably won’t care about Trump’s closing message, and an early voting update. Your weekly political ...

Trump voters who can't answer two basic questions about politics are three times as likely as other Trump voters to back ...

Poll respondents who change their recalled vote from Trump to Harris (or not voting) largely disapprove of Trump — and that ...

Here’s a fun fact: According to economist Nicholas Bloom and coauthors, for every dollar the U.S. Federal Government spends collecting data at the national Bureau of Labor Statistics, it returns $25 ...

In North Carolina, Democrats have cast 70% of the two parties' early ballots, the most lopsided split at this point since at ...

The Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini published the following chart in a Substack post this week, arguing that “Senate polls are always worse in the summer.” The chart shows that polls of Senate ...

Last week, The New York Times ran a great story about residents of a small Missouri town coming to grips with the consequences of Donald Trump’s mass deportation policy. The story focuses on the ...

Plus, Latinos have moved left since 2024 at 2x the rate of the average voter. Your weekly political data roundup for October ...

On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir show what could happen if the polls are underestimating either Democrats or Republicans ahead of the November elections.