Economic activity in the Twelfth District was broadly steady during the mid-August through September reporting period. Employers generally maintained employment levels and increased wages slightly.

Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...

Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have raised concerns about these technologies’ impact on employment, specifically, the rollout of generative AI models ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates data on how much different types of goods and services contribute to changes in consumer price index (CPI) inflation. This tool is intended ...

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

Together with CEPR we are hosting a monthly research seminar series Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics (VSME) ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Monetary Policy Surprises data capture the exogenous changes in interest rates over tight windows around the monetary policy announcements ...

U.S. households built up savings at unprecedented rates following the strong fiscal response and lower consumer spending related to the pandemic. Despite recent rapid drawdowns of those funds, ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...