Our final FLIPR update of the 2026 election cycle is in! When we launched the model back in August, Democrats were strong favorites to take the House but the Senate was close to a tossup. Today, a ...

One thing that hits a little different this year is that the main characters have really been the Democrats: Kamala Harris and, before her, Joe Biden. Source for this? Me, someone who’s been writing ...

Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.

In 16 years of running election forecasts, I’ve never seen such a close election. But that leaves a majority of cases where the election will probably be close, and it’s worth sorting through the ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...