Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...

Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are off by 3-4 points in the same direction in every state? I’m choosing 3-4 ...