A tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico is on a course that approaches Southeast Texas on Friday and brings a risk of urban flooding.

The wet pattern gives way to drying conditions by Sunday as high pressure rebuilds. Sun returns, rain chances taper off, and the stage is set for a significant heat rise. Highs climb into the upper 90s, with humidity bringing the heat index up to 105.

With tropical moisture increasing Friday, expect more widespread showers and storms to build in the next few days with the best chance for heavy rain along the SE Texas Gulf coast.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed all of Southeast Texas under a level 1 of 4 risk, or at least a 5% chance, of flooding Friday and Saturday.

Regardless of development, rainfall is expected throughout portions of Florida and along the Gulf coast through the weekend. Southeast Texas likely will see storm chances increase and cooler weather along with the tropical disturbance's potential development.

According to the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston, the system remains disorganized, with only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall—mainly along the coast—with totals of 1 to 2 inches and isolated higher amounts possible.

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